It’s not just that both Carr and Rodgers are Northern California QBs who have notable brothers with lesser pro careers and current TV gigs. Take a look at Carr’s 2016 Pro Bowl numbers vs. what Rodgers posted in ‘08.
2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Quarterbacks | Running backs | Wide receivers | Tight ends
Carr: 350 completions on 573 attempts, 3,987 yards, 32 TDs, 13 INTs, 31 sacks, 91.1 passer rating, 7-9 team record.
Rodgers: 341 completions on 536 attempts, 4,038 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs, 34 sacks, 93.8 passer rating, 6-10 team record.
What Rodgers did eight long seasons ago set him up to become the fantasy football passing stud we know and love today. Carr is well on his way there.
Why Derek Carr is the top 2016 fantasy football quarterback sleeper
Diving deeper into those pullout years, Carr and Rodgers got their numbers in similar ways. Carr heavily targeted his two starting wideouts, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and sent 55 targets to No. 3, Seth Roberts. Rodgers threw often to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and looked 54 times to then-No. 3 Jordy Nelson. The receiving progression was mirrored in patchwork production from tight end down to the fourth and fifth wideouts.
But as this is looking forward for Carr, what Rodgers did in ‘09 is more interesting. The presence of a top receiving threat at tight end, Jermichael Finley, was a huge boost, as well as the emergence of James Jones, a viable fourth option to go with Jennings, Driver and Nelson.
The Raiders are expecting second-year tight end Clive Walford to make the leap to be a Finley-like pass-catcher, and undrafted rookie Max McCaffrey is developing into a key cog to complement Cooper, Crabtree and Roberts.
Where things are different for a young Carr vs. a young Rodgers is the fact Carr already has benefited from a busy receiving backfield. Last year it was Latavius Murray and trusty fullback Marcel Reece as the dumpoff options. This year, dynamic rookie DeAndre Washington projects to have a role on more than just third downs thanks to his speed and big-play potential.
Carr has already drawn plenty of real football comparisons to Rodgers with his blend of arm, athleticism and efficiency. When the Packers and Raiders clashed last December, their stats were nearly identical. It led to Carr replacing a banged-up Rodgers in the Pro Bowl.
Recently, the man Rodgers replaced in Green Bay, Brett Favre, classified Carr as a non-gunslinger, saying he was more polished and more advanced than Favre was at the same stage. In other words, very much like Rodgers – except for the fact Carr wasn’t in situation where he could afford to be groomed and needed to play right away.
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The Packers always have stayed pretty balanced with different feature backs for Rodgers, up through Eddie Lacy. The Raiders in 2016 are intent to lean on Murray less and let Carr take more advantage of his more diversified weapons. There should be a rise in both yards and touchdowns, and more short scoring opportunities could lead to a few short rushing touchdowns for Carr.
Like Rodgers, he’s capable of picking good spots to take off and run. Now that Carr has proved to be durable and will be better protected behind an upgraded line, the Raiders should trust him more with that occasional asset.
Carr is a long way from proving he’s the elite championship QB Rodgers is. But as he tries to develop his game to get there, he can put up the pleasing stats to push him into a QB1 of the second fantasy tier, beginning this year.
